The relatively weak year-to-year correlations of the efficiency metrics lend some insight into why yardage is so predictable even though attempts might fluctuate from one year to the next. All of the other per-game volume numbers (pass attempts per game, fantasy points per game, and touchdowns per game) have a moderate year-to-year correlation, but it's not to the point where you'd look at the previous season's numbers and feel comfortable projecting those numbers forward.Īlso, note that touchdowns carry so much weight when it comes to fantasy scoring that their relatively low year-to-year correlation brings down the correlation for fantasy scoring as well. Of the per-game volume stats, passing yards are the strongest from year to year. With an understanding of why per-game stats correlate so strongly from year to year, we can take a closer look at which are the most reliable in predicting the upcoming season for a given quarterback. Year-to-Year Correlations for QBs, 2012–2022 Stat The table below lists the year-to-year correlations for 12 separate quarterback stats using the methodology described above. Using this methodology, the sample is 232 quarterbacks over the last 10 sets of year-to-year data. Therefore, all year-long volume stats showed relatively little year-over-year correlation. The decision to use per-game stats is based on the fact that total games played are extremely unpredictable for all positions-quarterbacks with an ADP in the top 200 over the last 10 years saw a year-to-year correlation of. This study considered 12 common per-game statistics for quarterbacks who started at least 10 games in consecutive years. This article has been updated to reflect data through 2022. This study will shed some light on which commonly-referenced stats are the most reliable indicators of future quarterback performance, as well as which might be misleading. While this can be a valuable exercise, if the analysis is predicated on the wrong stats, the effort will be all for naught. When projecting player stats, it can be tempting to simply look at the previous season as a sign of things to come and build expectations accordingly. BetMGM + 4for4 Sub Deal (Free Betting Subscription).VividPicks + 4for4 Sub Deal (Free Subscription).
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